Long- and short-term real interest rates have been trending lower across the world since the early 1990s. Initially, these declines were attributed to the success of inflation targeting and central bank independence in taming inflation risk, before then being attributed to the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, as real interest rates continued to trend lower in the aftermath of the GFC, more economists have begun to argue that there has been a secular decline in global equilibrium interest rates, driven by excess saving and low growth.

To debate whether the era of low interest rates is likely to prove temporary or permanent, we have invited two eminent economists: Andrew Milligan OBE, Head of Global Strategy at Standard Life Investments, will argue that the decline is likely to persist, while Dr Jari Stehn, Senior Global Economist at Goldman Sachs, will argue that interest rates will ultimately recover more than currently anticipated.

Andrew is the Head of Global Strategy, responsible for advising the Chief Executive Officer and senior fund management team at Standard Life Investments with global economic, market and political analysis. He is a member of the Global Investment Group forming the House View, as well as the Strategic Investment Group making decisions on the absolute return funds.

Jari is senior economist in the Global Economics Group in London. He joined Goldman Sachs in 2010 and was named managing director in 2013. Prior to joining the firm, Jari worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. Jari graduated with a first class honors degree and a master’s degree in economics from Trinity Hall, Cambridge University, in 2003 and 2004, respectively. He earned a PhD in Economics from Brasenose College, University of Oxford, in 2007.

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