Interview with Professor Tim Congdon

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Professor Tim Congdon CBE about money, inflation and the lessons of the post-Covid monetary policy episode.
 
The discussion centred on Professor Congdon’s latest book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, in which he argues that the inflation surge of the early 2020s was not primarily the result of supply shocks, energy prices or fiscal stimulus alone, but of the rapid growth of broad money following the emergency policy response to the pandemic. 
 

 In the conversation, Professor Congdon explained why he warned as early as spring 2020 that the expansion of money supply would lead, with a lag, first to asset price inflation and then to higher consumer price inflation. The interview explored Professor Congdon’s long-standing monetarist approach, including his emphasis on broad money rather than narrow money or central bank interest rates alone. He argued that much modern macroeconomics has become too focused on interest rates, fiscal deficits and labour-market explanations of inflation, while paying insufficient attention to bank deposits, credit creation, asset prices and the monetary consequences of quantitative easing and tightening. The discussion also covered the period after the global financial crisis, the role of tighter bank regulation in suppressing broad money growth, the shift from QE to quantitative tightening in 2022, and why inflation fell without the severe recession many economists had expected. Looking ahead, Professor Congdon warned that current US money growth and fiscal dynamics could point to a period of inflation above the 2% target, while he was more relaxed about the UK’s monetary position but concerned about the sustainability of public finances.
 
Professor Tim Congdon CBE is one of the UK’s best-known monetary economists and a long-standing commentator on inflation, money and banking. He founded Lombard Street Research, the City macroeconomic consultancy, and is Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research. His recent book, Money and Inflation at the Time of Covid, was published by Edward Elgar in 2025 and sets out his interpretation of the inflationary episode that followed the pandemic.

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