Salmon argues that the pandemic marked a decisive break from the pre-2020 “new normal” of stability and predictability, ushering in what he terms the “new not normal” — a world defined by volatility, fat-tail risks, and the absence of any stable equilibrium. In this environment, long-held assumptions about markets, policy, and geopolitics are constantly being overturned, requiring a shift in mindset from long-term certainty to adaptability and “strong opinions, weakly held.” This has implications not only for investors — where shorter-term, trader-style approaches may increasingly dominate — but also for politics, where short-termism and volatility are crowding out traditional statecraft.
At the same time, Salmon emphasises that this disruption has been creative as well as destructive. The “Phoenix economy” reflects the idea that the post-pandemic world, though less stable, offers greater upside, flexibility, and innovation — from rapid advances in digital infrastructure to new ways of working and organising economic activity. Yet these gains are unevenly distributed, favouring the adaptable and fortunate while exposing others to greater downside risk, both within and across countries. Looking ahead, Salmon highlights the possibility that technological change — particularly AI — could prove unexpectedly positive, potentially boosting employment and productivity, even as markets remain alert to volatility and potential corrections.
Felix Salmon is a senior writer at Bloomberg and host of the Slate Money podcast. He has previously worked at Reuters and Axios, and is the author of The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal, and is a speaker at the forthcoming Weekend of Mistakes event.
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