Diana Choyleva has analysed China for two decades. In 2016 she set up Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic and political forecasting company, focused on China and its global impact. Before that she worked at Lombard Street Research for 16 years, most recently as their chief economist and head of research. In particular, between 2010 and 2013 she was based in Hong Kong overseeing LSR’s expansion in Asia. She writes regularly on economic and political matters, including a book she co-authored with Charles Dumas which was published in 2011 entitled ‘The American Phoenix – and why China and Europe will struggle after the coming slump’.
During the course of the discussion, Diana analysed the state of the Chinese economy before the crisis began, how well have the authorities coped with the downturn, and explained why the Government has one last opportunity to manage the country’s mounting debt problems. The relationship between China and not only the USA but various other countries has deteriorated in recent years – Diana talked about the Great Decoupling leading to a bifurcation of the global economy, with serious implications in terms of growth, productivity and inflation. Countries will need to choose which side they support in terms of technology, trade and finance. Whether a cold war becomes a hot war is a serious issue for investors to consider in coming years, most obviously in relation to Taiwan and the South China Sea. Lastly Diana discussed the longer term demographic issues facing China, and what these mean for government policies in relation to innovation, investment and consumption.
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