The 2013 SBE Annual Conference was a tremendous success with a number of speakers discussing some of the challenges that the world’s economies are facing as the global recovery takes hold.
The conference was, as last year, expertly chaired by Evan Davis from the BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme and Dragon’s Den. We summarise briefly here the thoughts of this year’s speakers.
All images this page: Neil Gujar.
Charlie Bean, BoE Deputy Governor
Topic: UK Economic Outlook
The Bank of England’s Deputy Governor talked about a number of issues ranging from explanations of the UK’s underperformance (credit conditions, trade with the EU and weak investment) to the nascent recovery. The productivity puzzle received particular attention given the Bank’s policy of forward guidance - the latter of which it was argued had been well understood by industry.
The response from the financial markets was more mixed given that data had surprised on the upside and gilt yields are influenced by the trend in US markets.
Some success could be claimed however from noting that the interest rate curve had not steepened as much as the PMI survey, for example, would have suggested based on past recoveries.
Norma Cohen, FT demographics correspondent
Topic: Global Demographics
Norma focused on demographic issues and their impact on global growth. The combination of longer life expectancy and lower fertility rates has led to ageing populations generally across the world, which have brought well discussed fiscal challenges. All is not doom and gloom and there are some positives to these demographic trends, such as increased consumer demand.
A fascinating example was provided by looking at Harley Davidson motorbikes - whose key target market is the over-55s!
In the UK, inward migration has boosted the working age population, while internal migration (urbanisation) in the BRIC countries has helped support growth through increased productivity despite ageing populations (for example, Chinese workers moving away from lower productivity agricultural jobs).
Charles Dumas, Chairman of Lombard Street Research
Topic: Japan’s Economy
Abenomics was the key focus of Lombard Street’s Chairman. The state of Japan has not been a happy one over the past two decades: weak growth, persistent deflation and high government debt ratios.
Japan has been held back by firms which have retained rather than invested their earnings, combined with wasteful government investment.
Low levels of household incomes relative to the US could also be responsible for holding back spending on the consumer side too.
Indeed unless the government re focuses policy to encourage consumption rather than capex the outlook for Japan is negative.
Jim O'Neill, former Chairman Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Topic: Emerging Markets
Jim expects global growth to continue at roughly the same rate has it has done over recent decades, arguing that there is too much negative focus on China’s slowdown. He argues that the easing in growth in China from 10% is because the authorities are sacrificing high growth in order to achieve sustainable growth. His view was positive on China over the coming decade, with Indonesia, Nigeria and Mexico all exciting prospects too given their large populations and younger demographics.
The biggest EM countries are expected to grow at twice the rate of the US and Europe over the next 10 years.
India’s potential will be dependent on changes to governance, while Russia and Brazil - which have been beneficiaries of a commodities boom - may find it difficult to recreate their past strong rates of economic growth.
Neville Hill, Head of European Economics, Credit Suisse
Topic: European Economics
Institutional and structural reform should prepare the euro area eventually for strong and sustainable growth in the years ahead. That said, there are a number of key demand side issues (such as too much saving, as evidenced by some countries’ current account surpluses) that EU leaders need to face which may restrict economic growth in the near-term.
The positives include the peripheral economies now running primary surpluses, thus reducing their need for external finance, with ECB President Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ speech - which morphed into the OMT - providing a significant boost to confidence and growth.