Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at MAP and SPE member, held a discussion with Michael Strain, director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute and author of The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It) (Templeton Press, 2020), in which he examines long-term trends in economic outcomes for typical workers and households. 

In the interview, Mike and Filippo discuss the hotly debated topic of income inequality and whether wages have grown or stagnated over the past thirty years. Mike outlines the factual case that incomes and wages in the US have indeed increased since the early 90s and highlights a couple of reasons why there is a perception in the media and in some parts of academia that it is not the case. The conversation then moves to the current business cycle and Mike describes the current US economy as still hot but cooling and makes a case for why the chances of a rate cut this year is close to fifty-fifty. Looking to the medium and long term outlook, Mike is clearly in the optimistic but still pragmatic camp: AI will be a game changer but not in the doom [‘Skynet will take over’] fashion nor in the Panglossian [‘we are all going to leisure for ever’] fashion. Similar to previous technology revolution it will increase productivity and promote progress whilst presenting interesting policy challenges. Finally, in the last few minutes Filippo and Mike explores the role of work in providing meaning and dignity, building on Mike’s most recent article https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-policymakers-must-encourage-work-as-ai-changes-economy-by-michael-r-strain-2024-06, and how policymakers could do with having a couple of ‘North Stars’ to guide their policies in response to the AI revolution.

Michael R. Strain is the director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. Before joining AEI, Dr. Strain worked in the Center for Economic Studies at the US Census Bureau and in the macroeconomics research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He holds a PhD in economics from Cornell University. Dr. Strain is concurrently Professor of Practice in the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. He is also a research fellow with the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn, Germany; a research affiliate with the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin–Madison; and a member of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. He has served on several committees and working groups at the intersection of academic research and economic and social policy, including for the American Academy of Arts and Sciences; the National Academy of Social Insurance, where he is an elected member; and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Dr. Strain also writes frequently for popular audiences, and his essays and op-eds have been published by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, Bloomberg Opinion, and National Review, among other outlets. He is a columnist for Project Syndicate.

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