Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, discussed demographic trends and changes in population structure with Lyman Stone, Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, and Clara Piano, Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi.

In the conversation, Lyman and Clara outlined the output of their recent paper, “The Fertility Gap and Economic Freedom”, where they measured the difference between desired Fertility [how many children a couple would want] and achieved Fertility [how many children they actually have] – i.e. the Fertility Gap. In their research they examined trends in fertility but also what may be driving the Gap – from marriage to economic and monetary incentives and to cultural and religious factors.

The discussion also covers fertility trends in different countries and examples of policies that have been tried to slow down the decline or reverse it, including housing and urban development. Finally, Filippo, Clara and Lyman look at possible consequences of a rapidly falling population in terms of impact on economic growth, dynamism, innovation and the capability to sustain the future welfare state and government debt. It is a fascinating conversation about a topic which is mentioned often but not analysed in depth and that will dramatically affect our society.

Lyman Stone is the Director of Research at the population consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, the Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the United States-based Institute for Family Studies, a senior fellow at the Canadian research organization Cardus, and a PhD candidate at McGill University.

Clara Piano is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi and her primary research areas are family economics, law and economics, and public choice.

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